Wales’ hopes of securing their fourth major tournament appearance in the span of eight years were shattered at Cardiff City Stadium last night when Poland emerged victorious in a penalty shoot-out, securing the final spot in Germany. This play-off defeat served as a devastating conclusion to a tumultuous Euro 2024 qualifying campaign.
Throughout the journey, there were two exhilarating encounters against Croatia, as well as a commendable victory in the semi-finals against Finland. However, the campaign was also characterized by missed opportunities and overshadowed by persistent doubts surrounding manager Rob Page.
Despite the heart-wrenching nature of Wales’ elimination, there are still those who argue that the team should never have been forced to rely on luck and the play-offs to secure qualification.
In this analysis by BBC Sport Wales, we delve into the pivotal moments that ultimately cost Wales their place at Euro 2024.
A World Cup hangover
Qualifying for the 2022 World Cup marked a significant achievement for Wales after 64 years, representing the highlight of Page’s tenure. However, upon reaching Qatar, the dream quickly transformed into a reality check.
A major challenge that Wales has encountered in recent times is the lack of consistent playing time for their players at the club level, a deficiency that was evident during the World Cup. Wales had a sluggish start in their initial match against the United States, barely managing to secure a draw. Subsequently, they were thoroughly outclassed by Iran and suffered a comprehensive defeat at the hands of England.
Throughout the tournament, key players such as Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey appeared to be struggling due to their limited match fitness upon entering the competition. While the qualification for the World Cup was undoubtedly a proud moment for Wales, their lackluster performances in Qatar resulted in a rather disappointing experience during the tournament itself.
Page and his team were left disheartened, especially with Bale announcing his retirement a mere month later, leaving a lingering sense that Wales returned home with a substantial World Cup hangover.
Armenia agony
There is hardly ever a single isolated moment that leads to disappointment – however, there is one particular night that stands out prominently and grotesquely in Wales’ unsuccessful campaign, long before Daniel James’ penalty miss.
The 4-2 defeat suffered by Wales against Armenia was not only surprising in terms of the outcome, but it was also shocking in its manner, reminiscent of the nights Welsh football believed it had moved past. It resembled the defeats against Moldova, Georgia, and others, a humiliating loss on home soil that severely damaged Wales’ chances of automatic qualification.
Undoubtedly, Wales’ defensive performance was subpar, but the unbalanced team selection created an open invitation for Armenia – and consequently, put significant pressure on Page.
Turkish early bath
Turkey is a nation with a strong footballing tradition, and facing their national team on their home turf was always going to be a tough challenge. Wales had made things much harder for themselves by entering the game in June following a humiliating loss to Armenia. Although they didn’t perform as poorly in Turkey, Page’s team struggled to keep their opponents at bay during the first half in Samsun. Wales had some luck on their side, as Turkey had an early goal disallowed, but their situation worsened when Joe Morrell was shown a red card in the 41st minute for a reckless tackle on Ferdi Kadioglu.
With the odds already stacked against them, the red card sealed Wales’ fate. Despite their efforts, Wales fell to a 2-0 defeat, dealing a significant blow to their chances of qualifying automatically.
Very public disagreement
Page’s future was uncertain following the summer defeats, and there were doubts about whether he would continue as manager. It is not uncommon for managers to face criticism after poor results, but it was particularly disruptive to have the chief executive publicly express his concerns. This created more tension within the team rather than fostering unity.
Although Noel Mooney dismissed reports of Roy Keane replacing Page as baseless, it was acknowledged that the Football Association of Wales (FAW) had considered Page’s future. In an interview during matchweek, Page did not deny the importance of winning games.
To show their support, Page’s backroom staff attended a news conference, and Ben Davies emphasized that the negative speculation was unhelpful. Despite the uncertainty, Wales rallied and delivered an outstanding performance to defeat Croatia, celebrating with ‘zip it’ gestures.
However, even after peace talks between Page and Mooney, the public divide between the team and the hierarchy had a detrimental impact.
Ramsey regret
When September arrived, a triumph in Latvia seemed to calm the nerves. Aaron Ramsey, in particular, remained composed as he converted a penalty in the first half, turning pressure into a crucial victory. His performance was outstanding.
However, just four minutes into the second half, Ramsey gestured to the bench to be substituted. He later explained it was a precaution, and he was fit to lead Cardiff to a victory in the South Wales derby that same week.
Unfortunately, Ramsey’s campaign came to an end due to a knee and calf issue.
Although Ben Davies stepped up as captain, filling Ramsey’s shoes in terms of playmaking and experience proved to be a challenge for a Wales team without Bale.
Despite being included in the squad, it was surprising not to see Ramsey even make an appearance off the bench as Wales lost to Poland in the play-off.
Armenia agony… again
Ramsey’s absence was keenly felt in Yerevan, where Wales stumbled despite a golden opportunity presenting itself. A significant victory against Croatia not only rectified past mistakes, but also showcased Wales’ newfound balance and energy on the field. Coupled with unexpected outcomes in other matches, Wales had control of their destiny as they traveled to Armenia for the crucial game.
Although two wins would have sufficed, the dream was shattered well before the anticipated clash with Turkey. Lucas Zelarayan’s five-minute strike turned a challenging match into another disappointment for Wales, who failed to capitalize on an Armenian own goal in a lackluster draw.
Despite their attacking options, Wales appeared frantic and uninspired in the attacking third, highlighting a glaring lack of quality and creativity.
Limitations exposed
Despite Wales’ efforts to expand their pool of talent, the reality of their limited options became evident during the Poland play-off. With key defensive players absent and an injury to Connor Roberts, the decision to deploy Dan James as a wing-back instead of utilizing the bench hindered Wales’ attacking threat.
In addition, Ramsey’s lack of fitness and David Brooks’ untimely illness further restricted their options when they needed to find a different approach to avoid penalties. Although the team had made progress in terms of balance and identity, their campaign ultimately concluded in disappointment.
