The Brinson Model™ makes its return! Following a relatively successful year with my full-season win-loss forecasts, we are prepared for another season of accurately predicting the records of every NFL team.
Reflecting on the previous season serves as a stark reminder of the challenges involved in forecasting precise NFL team records. This sport is played with an irregularly shaped, inflated ball that tends to bounce unpredictably, leading to considerable disorder over a limited timeframe.
1. Arizona Cardinals
- DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -150)
- Brinson projected record: 7-10
The Arizona Cardinals are unexpectedly seen as a fun and promising team for the 2024 season. Kyler Murray’s improvement, coupled with the addition of elite WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and a solid supporting cast, has boosted the offense. While the defense is still a work in progress, the team’s overall performance could surprise and potentially lead to a playoff run.
2. Atlanta Falcons
- DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
- Brinson projected record: 10-7
The Atlanta Falcons are generating excitement this year after last year’s underperformance. With a new offensive coordinator, the acquisition of Kirk Cousins, and a talented offensive core including Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts, the team is poised for improvement. While defensive concerns remain, the Falcons’ overall potential is promising.
3. Baltimore Ravens
- DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -135)
- Brinson projected record: 12-5
Despite concerns about free agent losses, the departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, and offensive line issues, the Baltimore Ravens are projected to remain a competitive team. The Ravens believe in their ability to develop talent and expect improvement from Lamar Jackson and the offense. While the defense faces challenges, the team’s overall strength and coaching staff could lead to surprising results.
4. Buffalo Bills
- DraftKings win total: 10.5 (under -155)
- Brinson projected record: 10-7
Despite trading Stefon Diggs, the Buffalo Bills are projected to have a successful season led by MVP candidate Josh Allen. The team’s offensive weapons, including James Cook, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid, offer potential for a strong offense. While the defensive line needs improvement, the overall team is expected to perform well under Sean McDermott’s leadership.
5. Carolina Panthers
- DraftKings win total: 5.5 (over -115)
- Brinson projected record: 6-11
Despite last year’s disappointment, the Carolina Panthers are showing potential for improvement in 2024. Statistical analysis, improved coaching, and a strong running game are factors contributing to optimism. While losing Brian Burns is a setback, the Panthers have strengthened their offense through trades and drafting and aim to be more competitive this season.
6. Chicago Bears
- DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -165)
- Brinson projected record: 8-9
The annual excitement surrounding the Bears is escalating to its typical extreme levels; however, this may indeed be the year to invest in their potential. Caleb Williams possesses significant promise as a rookie and has landed in a favorable situation for a young quarterback, especially with the Bears acquiring Keenan Allen through trade and drafting Rome Odunze, complementing D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. Additionally, D’Andre Swift’s strategic free agency signing provides Williams with another valuable outlet. The offensive line appears to be the strongest Chicago has had in several years. The question remains whether Matt Eberflus can maintain the defensive momentum observed late in the previous season into 2024. Following the acquisition of Montez Sweat via a midseason trade, the team’s performance noticeably improved. If this trend continues, I may be underestimating their potential. They certainly have the characteristics of a sleeper playoff contender in the NFC.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
- DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -140)
- Brinson projected record: 11-6
The Cincinnati Bengals’ success hinges on Joe Burrow’s health and the return of key offensive players like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. While losing offensive coordinator Brian Callahan is a setback, the team’s strong offense and potential improvements on defense could lead to a successful season.
8. Cleveland Browns
- DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -135)
- Brinson projected record: 7-10
The Cleveland Browns face potential challenges in the upcoming season, including defensive inconsistency, the loss of offensive line coach Bill Callahan, and uncertainty surrounding Nick Chubb’s health and the team’s running back depth. Additionally, Deshaun Watson’s ability to return to form after a long absence remains questionable, raising concerns about the team’s offensive performance.
9. Dallas Cowboys
- DraftKings win total: 10.5 (under -180)
- Brinson projected record: 11-6
The potential outcomes for the Cowboys this season are quite varied, as evidenced by my inclusion of them on the “might miss the playoffs” list while also projecting them to achieve 11 wins in The Brinson Model™️. I anticipate a slow start, with a .500 record over the initial six weeks, before they gain momentum due to a relatively favorable schedule that includes numerous home games in the latter half of the season. Provided the offensive line remains intact, I have confidence in Mike McCarthy’s ability to maximize Dak Prescott’s performance. While playoff success may pose challenges, it is noteworthy that he has led the team to 12 victories in each of the past three seasons. CeeDee Lamb is expected to participate, even under a less-than-ideal contract situation. Brandin Cooks serves as a reliable No. 2 receiver, Jake Ferguson has the potential to emerge as a breakout player this year, and the running back group, featuring Rico Dowdle, may exceed expectations. My primary concern lies with the defense following Dan Quinn’s departure; however, Mike Zimmer possesses sufficient resources on that side of the ball to undertake a successful reclamation effort.
10. Denver Broncos
- DraftKings win total: 5.5 (under -125)
- Brinson projected record: 7-10
Bo Nix, having been selected 12th overall this year, is expected to take the field; if he does not, it would raise significant concerns. I believe Javonte Williams has the potential to exceed expectations, and if the offensive line performs well, he could enjoy a remarkable season. However, there are some worries regarding the receiving corps, and I remain uncertain about the overall strength of the defense. It is also worth noting that the Broncos secured eight victories last season and were close to contending for a playoff spot late in the year. If they were to finish with a 9-8 record and Nix emerged as a standout player, thanks to Payton’s exceptional skills as a quarterback coach and offensive strategist, I would not find that surprising at all.
11. Detroit Lions
- DraftKings win total: 10.5 (over -135)
- Brinson projected record: 11-6
Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have excelled in constructing this Lions team, making it difficult to envision a scenario where they do not qualify for the postseason this year. Jared Goff and the offense will only compete in three outdoor games throughout the entire season. This could lead to explosive performances, particularly if Jameson Williams develops as Campbell suggests he might. Jahmyr Gibbs has been frequently positioned in the slot during training camp, indicating that he and David Montgomery could frequently share the field. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are standout players. The primary concern regarding offensive performance lies in the defense’s ability to improve, particularly in the secondary. While Detroit’s front seven appears robust, the secondary struggled significantly last year, prompting the team to make investments in that area. Although this may negatively impact fantasy prospects, it will not detract from the Lions’ potential to be an exceptional football team.
12. Green Bay Packers
- DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
- Brinson projected record: 10-7
The performance of another team this season is highly contingent upon the contributions of Jordan Love to the Packers. As previously mentioned, Love exhibited characteristics of a borderline starter during the initial half of last season, transitioning to a player of unanimous MVP caliber in the latter half. This year, he is equipped with an abundance of offensive weapons and has secured a new contract, which raises expectations significantly. Although the early-season schedule presents challenges, particularly with the unusual circumstance of starting the season in Brazil, it would not be surprising if the Packers commenced the season strongly and maintained that momentum throughout. I hold a positive outlook on Love, especially with the array of talent at his disposal, particularly if Christian Watson can remain injury-free. Additionally, the defense is expected to see improvements, largely due to the hiring of Jeff Hafley as the new defensive coordinator.
13. Houston Texans
- DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -140)
- Brinson projected record: 10-7
Houston has boundless potential, yet the high expectations may pose a challenge. C.J. Stroud stands as the second leading candidate for the MVP award across the NFL. The addition of Stefon Diggs to the roster alongside Tank Dell and Nico Collins is an exciting prospect, and Joe Mixon could complement the offensive strategy effectively. It is difficult to critique the defense, given DeMeco Ryans’ proven coaching abilities and his track record of success at previous stops.
Furthermore, the acquisition of Danielle Hunter as a pass-rushing asset and Kamari Lassiter in the secondary has generated positive attention this offseason. Should Lassiter prove to be exceptional and Derek Stingley Jr. continue his development, they could form a formidable duo. My primary concerns revolve around the surrounding hype and the competitive division: the Texans might be poised to meet the former, and even if they do not fully realize their potential, they could still emerge victorious in the AFC South.
14. Indianapolis Colts
- DraftKings win total: 8.5 (under -125)
- Brinson projected record: 8-9
Another team exhibiting a remarkable degree of variability is the Colts, with Anthony Richardson at the center of attention. If one were to suggest that Richardson played only five games and the Colts faced difficulties this season, I would find that plausible. Conversely, if it were claimed that Richardson secured the MVP title and the Colts emerged as a formidable 12-win team, I would also accept that scenario. While I hesitate to label Richardson as injury-prone so early in his career, it is worth noting that he has already experienced significant injuries. Nevertheless, there are numerous positive aspects to consider. Shane Steichen is an exceptionally skilled offensive coach, and indications suggest that this team aims to adopt a fast-paced style of play. Michael Pittman remains under contract, and AD Mitchell has been added through the draft, alongside Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and several promising tight ends. It is essential for the offensive line to return to its previous form to ensure Richardson’s protection.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
- DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over/under -110)
- Brinson projected record: 9-8
The Jacksonville Jaguars aim to bounce back from last year’s disappointing season with a healthy Trevor Lawrence and improved offensive weapons. The team has also strengthened its defense through free agent signings and a new defensive coordinator. Despite facing a tough AFC South division, the Jaguars have the potential to be a strong contender.
16. Kansas City Chiefs
- DraftKings win total: 11.5 (over -115)
- Brinson projected record: 12-5
The Kansas City Chiefs defied expectations last season, winning the Super Bowl despite falling short of their win total. Aiming for a three-peat, they’ve bolstered their offense with speedster receivers. While their defense has quietly excelled, the team’s overall dominance and potential pacing for the playoffs remain intriguing storylines.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
- DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -130)
- Brinson projected record: 6-11
The Las Vegas Raiders present a complex challenge to assess. While I may be underestimating their potential based on their overall roster, I harbor significant concerns regarding the quarterback position and the obstacles they will encounter within their division. Is Gardner Minshew truly the solution available in free agency? Although I appreciate the selection of Brock Bowers, it seems somewhat redundant given the presence of Michael Mayer, despite the new management. Antonio Pierce demonstrated remarkable leadership with the team during the latter part of last season; however, interim coaches frequently struggle to succeed in permanent roles. If the Raiders’ defense can replicate its opportunistic performance from last year and the running game proves to be formidable, this team could surpass my initial projections and the anticipated win total in Las Vegas. Nevertheless, the schedule poses considerable challenges due to the competitive nature of the AFC West.
18. Los Angeles Rams
- DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -155)
- Brinson projected record: 12-5
The author is extremely optimistic about the Los Angeles Rams’ performance this year. They highlight improvements made to the offensive line and receiving corps, along with a promising running back duo. While acknowledging the defensive losses, they believe the team’s offensive firepower can compensate.
19. Los Angeles Chargers
- DraftKings win total: 8.5 (over -150)
- Brinson projected record: 9-8
The plantar injury sustained by Justin Herbert has the potential to disrupt the entire division and significantly impact the team’s dynamics. Should Herbert return to full health, I view the Chargers as a dark horse candidate for the playoffs. Jim Harbaugh has a proven track record of success and has molded this team in his own image from the outset. With Greg Roman’s running game supported by a robust offensive line filled with early draft selections, there should be sufficient production to enable Herbert and receivers Josh Palmer and Ladd McConkey to advance the ball when necessary.
Furthermore, the defense has remained intact following the salary cap adjustments this offseason, allowing Harbaugh to maximize the talent he has inherited. The Harbaugh brothers have a keen eye for selecting coordinators, and we have already witnessed Jesse Minter’s success under Jim in Ann Arbor. It is essential to monitor Herbert’s injury as the season approaches, given the potential for lingering effects.
20. Miami Dolphins
- DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -135)
- Brinson projected record: 9-8
The Miami Dolphins made significant investments in their offensive core this offseason, positioning them as Super Bowl contenders. However, offensive line cohesion and defensive injuries are concerns. While the offense has the potential to carry the team early in the season, the Dolphins must improve their ability to win in challenging conditions and against top-tier opponents.
21. Minnesota Vikings
- DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -160)
- Brinson projected record: 7-10
The Minnesota Vikings are facing significant challenges this season, primarily due to the loss of rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy to a season-ending injury. The transition to Sam Darnold at quarterback represents a significant downgrade. While the offense still possesses talent, the team will likely rely heavily on its running game. Defensive concerns and a competitive division further complicate the Vikings’ outlook for the season.
22. New England Patriots
- DraftKings win total: 4.5 (over -150)
- Brinson projected record: 5-12
The New England Patriots are facing significant uncertainty in their first season without Bill Belichick. The team has a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye and a questionable offensive line. While the defense has potential, the overall outlook for the season is challenging given the coaching change and offensive limitations.
23. New Orleans Saints
- DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -120)
- Brinson projected record: 6-11
The increasing pressure on Dennis Allen is evident from his candid remarks regarding various players as the season approaches. The situation is further complicated by concerns surrounding the offensive line, a unit that previously excelled in front of Drew Brees but has significantly declined, particularly following the preseason loss of Ryan Ramczyk. Taliese Fuaga must emerge as a standout player at left tackle from the outset. Additionally, Klint Kubiak, who is taking over from longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, must ensure that his offense operates effectively and efficiently. There is potential for success, as the combination of Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed presents a promising trio. If Alvin Kamara can return to his former self, this offense has the potential to be quite entertaining. The defense is expected to maintain a strong performance and may even improve if Chase Young meets expectations. The Saints did not meet their projected win total last season and recorded a 3-6 record in one-score games, suggesting that I may be underestimating them if the offense can become more dynamic.
24. New York Giants
- DraftKings win total: 6.5 (under -135)
- Brinson projected record: 6-11
The first-round draft pick has consistently showcased his skills, continuing to impress until he recently sustained a mild ankle sprain. Ultimately, the team’s success hinges on Daniel Jones and the performance of the offensive line. If the protection remains solid, we may witness a return to the form exhibited by Danny Dimes in 2022, significantly enhancing the offensive capabilities of the team. The exit of Saquon Barkley could prove beneficial, as it may enable the offense to operate more fluidly without the need to concentrate on a single player. Furthermore, the addition of Brian Burns, in conjunction with Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux, has the potential to create a formidable pass rush, which could compensate for any deficiencies in the secondary.
25. New York Jets
- DraftKings win total: 9.5 (over -150)
- Brinson projected record: 9-8
The New York Jets’ playoff aspirations hinge on the health and performance of Aaron Rodgers. Despite a strong roster with offensive and defensive talent, the team’s success is heavily reliant on Rodgers’ ability to return to form after his Achilles injury. The Jets’ offensive line has been improved, and the team possesses dynamic playmakers, but the uncertainty surrounding Rodgers’ health creates significant variance in their potential outcomes.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
- DraftKings win total: 8.5 (under -160)
- Brinson projected record: 6-11
The Pittsburgh Steelers face significant uncertainty heading into the season, primarily due to the quarterback situation. The team’s offensive line and wide receiver depth are also concerns. While the defense has potential to be strong, their success heavily relies on T.J. Watt’s health and performance.
27. San Francisco 49ers
- DraftKings win total: 11.5 (under -125)
- Brinson projected record: 11-6
The San Francisco 49ers possess one of the most well-rounded rosters in the National Football League. They have reached the NFC Championship game for three consecutive years, including a heartbreaking overtime defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl last season. Consequently, they are justifiably regarded as one of the leading contenders for the Super Bowl title. However, recent developments during the offseason raise some concerns. Christian McCaffrey has sustained a calf injury that, while not expected to be serious, certainly warrants attention.
28. Seattle Seahawks
- DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -135)
- Brinson projected record: 9-8
The Seattle Seahawks present a challenging forecast due to the extensive transformations taking place within the organization. While the roster remains largely intact, the appointment of Mike MacDonald as the team’s first new head coach in many years introduces a potentially innovative strategy. Although Pete Carroll is a Hall of Fame coach, the addition of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb under MacDonald’s leadership may lead to notable offensive achievements. Quarterbacks Geno Smith and possibly Sam Howell have the advantage of three dynamic receivers—DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba—who can be utilized similarly to the trio of Washington rookies from the previous college season.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- DraftKings win total: 7.5 (over -150)
- Brinson projected record: 9-8
Last year, many underestimated the Buccaneers in a significant manner, yet Baker Mayfield and his team proved the critics wrong. I am genuinely apprehensive about a repeat of this scenario with the current projections, and it would not surprise me if Tampa Bay secured the division title once more. They could potentially achieve this with a record of 9-8, suggesting that my concerns may not be unfounded.
In any case, it is unlikely that any team will dominate the NFC South. The optimistic outlook for the Buccaneers is straightforward: the addition of Jalen McMillan is expected to enhance the passing game, particularly if new offensive coordinator Liam Coen opts to position Chris Godwin in the slot. Initial assessments of Graham Barton indicate that he could be another successful first-round offensive line selection by General Manager Jason Licht. The defense already boasts several standout players, such as Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield Jr., along with other high-caliber athletes who may rise to prominence this season, potentially reestablishing Tampa as a competitive force. The betting markets appear to align with this perspective, as indicated by the significantly favorable odds.
30. Tennessee Titans
- DraftKings win total: 6.5 (under -135)
- Brinson projected record: 6-11
The transition from the previous administration presents yet another unpredictable element. Personally, I anticipated that finding a suitable successor to Mike Vrabel would be challenging; however, I hold a favorable view of Brian Callahan and the team’s prospects for 2024. While DeAndre Hopkins’ injury raises some concerns, he is expected to return early in the regular season, and the acquisition of Calvin Ridley provides additional flexibility. The involvement of Bill Callahan, Brian’s father, is significant for strengthening the offensive line, alongside the first-round selection of JC Latham. The defense remains an unpredictable factor, and should it underperform, we may witness a substantial increase in passing attempts from the offense. While I do not expect the Titans to be particularly strong this year, I believe that Will Levis and the new coaching staff will demonstrate enough potential to make even a six-win season appear as a constructive advancement.
31. Washington Commanders
- DraftKings win total: 6.5 (over -130)
- Brinson projected record: 7-10
A significant overhaul has occurred within the leadership structure, as Dan Quinn has taken the helm, accompanied by Kliff Kingsbury and newly acquired quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was selected second overall by the Commanders following his impressive Heisman-winning season. The offensive line presents a considerable challenge; however, Daniels’ agility may compensate for this deficiency. The roster possesses sufficient talent to potentially foster a competitive stance in the NFC East, contingent upon Terry McLaurin maintaining his usual level of consistency, Jahan Dotson fulfilling his draft expectations, and Austin Ekeler rediscovering his peak performance. The team is poised to adopt a fast-paced offensive strategy, and it is imperative for Quinn to enhance a mid-tier defense if they aspire to contend effectively. Optimism is warranted for the future in Washington.
